The global space economy reached $626B in 2025 with 78% commercial share — a generation ago, space was something governments did. SpaceX drove 80%+ of launch mass-to-orbit, disclosed $18.7B of FY2025 revenue (with a $4.9B net loss) in its S-1, and completed the largest IPO in history on 2026-06-12: priced $135/share ($1.77T), day-one close $160.95 ≈ $2.1T ≈ 112x trailing revenue. Rocket Lab is the best pure public proxy: $602M FY2025 revenue (+38%), a $2.2B backlog, and Neutron medium-lift targeting Q4 2026. With Voyager, Firefly and now SpaceX listed, the asset class has entered its public-market phase — and the valuation risk is extreme.
📈 What changed: 2026-07-24: Starship Flight 13 launched at 22:51 UTC after two scrubs (2026-07-16 engine-ignition abort, 2026-07-23 weather) and met every primary objective — all 33 booster engin…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | Industry-scale commercial maturity with SpaceX at >80% market share; multi-billion annual revenue; IPO wave culminated in SPCX's record June 2026 listing. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 71/100 | SpaceX S-1 filing, audited company results, and Novaspace market data combine to give unusually strong evidence base for a frontier industry. |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | Real recurring revenue at scale; launch services market $25.3B in 2026; SpaceX alone generated $18.7B in FY2025; satellite services $180B+ annually. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · high confidence | 80/100 | Strong government tailwind: US civil/defence space budgets $132B+; national security space driving procurement; commercial partnerships accelerating. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · high confidence | 66/100 | Extreme crowding realised: SPCX closed its first day (2026-06-12) at ≈$2.1T, ~112x trailing revenue; RKLB and AST SpaceMobile at growth-premium multiples; SPAC disaster cohort still fresh. |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · high confidence | 78/100 | The SPCX listing was the defining reflexivity event — at ≈$2.1T day-one close, a decade of growth is priced while the S-1 disclosed a $4.9B FY2025 net loss. |
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