Lithium, cobalt and rare earths remain essential to the energy transition — the IEA projects lithium demand will grow 40-fold by 2040 under net-zero scenarios — but the sector is still recovering from a severe 2022-2024 price downturn even as China retains 60-80% of global rare-earth processing capacity, 65% of cobalt refining and 35% of lithium processing, making Western supply-chain diversification as much a geopolitical project as a commercial one.
📈 What changed: 2026-07-23: Chinese lithium carbonate futures fell to a five-month low (~136,800 yuan/$20,210 per tonne on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange), down almost 30% from the mid-May 2026 h…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 69/100 | The lithium and rare-earth supply chain for the energy transition, now inseparable from the export-control and processing-mandate architecture covered under Resource Nationalism. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | USGS, IEA and legal-analysis sources anchor this theme with well-corroborated figures on both demand growth and Chinese processing concentration. |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · high confidence | 59/100 | Real, scaled revenue exists, but pricing remains well below the 2022 peak even as demand growth projections remain extreme. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | Directly overlaps with the Resource Nationalism policy architecture — export controls and reserve-building both function as tailwinds here. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · medium confidence | 40/100 | Recovering from a severe multi-year lithium bear market — positioning remains well below prior boom-era extremes. |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · low confidence | 64/100 | Headline-sensitive to individual country policy announcements, layered atop genuine multi-year price-cycle dynamics. |
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