AI has triggered the largest data centre buildout in history: hyperscalers are committing $650-725B of capex in 2026, 1,297 hyperscale facilities now operate globally, and power has replaced capital as the binding constraint — creating a multi-year structural supply-demand wedge that benefits colocation REITs (Equinix, Digital Realty), AI-native operators (CoreWeave), and critical infrastructure suppliers (Vertiv, Eaton).
📈 What changed: 2026-08-13: PJM formally submitted its data-centre interconnection tariff framework to FERC — four days ahead of the August 17 compliance deadline set by FERC's June 18 show-cause…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 82/100 | Utility-grade infrastructure at scale; AI workloads have triggered a demand step-change above prior DC cycles. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | T1/T2 layer expanded again this refresh (SMCI's final Q4 FY26 SEC 8-K, PJM's Aug 13 FERC filing) on top of prior CoreWeave/Equinix/DLR filings and FERC orders; source depth clears both the T1 threshold and the >=10 T1/T… |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | Revenue at record scale; power scarcity and AI demand create a clear wedge driving multi-year contracted backlog. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · high confidence | 69/100 | Multiple national DC strategies; IRA clean energy credits; Singapore scarcity via regulation — net positive and accelerating. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · high confidence | 85/100 | DC/AI infrastructure is among the most crowded institutional theses; EQIX and DLR near top of institutional ownership; CoreWeave at frothy multiples. |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · high confidence | 50/100 | REIT layer anchored in AFFO; GPU cloud layer (CoreWeave) more narrative-sensitive; theme has mixed earnings groundedness. |
Every indicator score is computed by the Northstar engine from analyst-set ordinal bands — never hand-written, never stored.
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