CCUS has the hardest policy floor of any climate-transition theme -- the US 45Q credit survived reconciliation intact and the EU's CBAM became legally binding on 1 January 2026 -- but 2025 also saw more than $7.5bn of project cancellations as European majors pulled back, leaving a sector where the law is firmly on its side even as project economics remain unproven outside of subsidy.
📈 What changed: Treasury and the IRS expanded and extended the Section 45Q compliance safe harbor on 14 Aug 2026 (Notice 2026-50), now covering CO2 used as a tertiary injectant in enhanced-oil-re…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 36/100 | First full-chain projects are now operating, but global capture capacity remains a fraction of stated 2030 targets. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 66/100 | Project milestones and policy facts are corroborated across multiple independent trackers; no peer-reviewed tier. |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · high confidence | 41/100 | Named corporate offtake is real and growing, but revenue remains a rounding error against the broader pipeline. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · high confidence | 71/100 | The strongest policy floor of any theme in this batch: 45Q survived reconciliation intact and CBAM is now legally binding. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · high confidence | 22/100 | Pure-play CCUS positioning is depressed after a wave of 2025 project cancellations; institutional capital is only selectively re-entering. |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · medium confidence | 47/100 | CCUS sits inside diversified, cash-generative oil-major balance sheets, tempering reflexivity relative to pure-play clean-energy names. |
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