Offshore wind is a globally scaled, ~$77-109B industry with a multi-decade operating track record in Europe and China, but it has entered a period of policy bifurcation: Europe and Asia-Pacific keep building out under committed auction frameworks while the US actively reverses course, cancelling leases and paying developers to walk away.
📈 What changed: The US lease-buyout program grew to five deals worth roughly $2.7bn combined -- Duke Energy surrendered its Carolina Long Bay lease for ~$129m (29 Jun 2026) and Interior paid Inve…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 82/100 | Scaled industry globally (92.5GW installed) but growth has been cut sharply and the US has reversed. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 71/100 | Capacity and pipeline figures corroborated across multiple independent industry bodies; no peer-reviewed tier. |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · high confidence | 75/100 | Revenue is real and recurring globally; the near-term wedge is now clouded by an active US policy reversal. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · high confidence | 62/100 | Strongly positive in Europe/Asia-Pacific; the US has become an active policy headwind, netting to a mixed global picture. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · medium confidence | 55/100 | Turbine OEMs have rallied hard on a supply squeeze; positioning is not yet extreme but momentum is positive. |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · high confidence | 40/100 | Earnings-grounded operators; risk concentrates in project financing and single-name regulatory shocks (GE Vernova, US leases). |
Every indicator score is computed by the Northstar engine from analyst-set ordinal bands — never hand-written, never stored.
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