Deglobalisation is a real but decelerating trend, not the accelerating structural break the political narrative suggests — reshoring job announcements peaked in 2022 and have declined since, academic research finds no systematic evidence of nearshoring in US investment patterns, and BofA's own survey shows only 20% of executives expect significant reshoring versus 40% who expect only mild, selective relocation.
📈 What changed: A peer-reviewed empirical study of 2015-2024 trade data found increasing political friend-shoring but explicitly found 'economic friend-shoring appears unattractive on average,' a…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 57/100 | A genuinely contested trend — reshoring job creation has already peaked and is losing momentum even as the political narrative around deglobalisation intensifies. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 69/100 | Peer-reviewed and World Bank research provide strong evidentiary grounding, but their conclusions are more skeptical than the popular narrative. |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · medium confidence | 43/100 | Real industrial revenue exists, but the 'deglobalisation premium' specific to these names is modest and growth has decelerated from its 2022 peak. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · medium confidence | 54/100 | Large historical public funding (CHIPS Act, IRA) is now showing signs of losing momentum rather than accelerating further. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · low confidence | 43/100 | A moderately positioned, not extreme, structural theme — closer to industrial-cycle exposure than a crowded macro trade. |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · low confidence | 29/100 | Tariff and trade-policy headlines move these names, but the underlying industrial businesses are earnings-grounded. |
Every indicator score is computed by the Northstar engine from analyst-set ordinal bands — never hand-written, never stored.
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