Governments are now committing hundreds of billions to subsidise chips and clean energy — China alone has deployed €135.2B in equity funds versus the US's $37.1B in CHIPS Act grants — but execution quality diverges sharply: TSMC's subsidised Arizona expansion has proceeded smoothly, Intel scrapped its subsidised Magdeburg, Germany fab in 2025 even as Washington converted CHIPS Act grants into a ~10% Intel equity stake now worth roughly $36B amid a sharp 2026 share-price recovery, and the EU's own Chips Act has 'underdelivered' by Bruegel's assessment, prompting a Chips Act 2.0 proposal in June 2026.
📈 What changed: 2026-07-27: Correction — Intel's Magdeburg, Germany fab, previously described in this file as a live €20B-subsidised project, was in fact formally cancelled by Intel in 2025; Germ…
| Indicator | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Maturity higher is better · high confidence | 82/100 | A mature, multi-year, multi-hundred-billion-dollar policy regime, though execution quality varies sharply by jurisdiction. |
| Evidence Strength higher is better · high confidence | 80/100 | Extensively documented by multiple independent think-tanks with primary legislative citations. |
| Commercial Proximity higher is better · high confidence | 78/100 | Massive, disclosed capital commitments are flowing today, though actual competitive outcomes (Intel vs. TSMC) remain mixed. |
| Capital & Policy Support higher is better · high confidence | 85/100 | The policy tailwind IS the theme — among the largest, most coordinated, most rapidly evolving industrial-subsidy regimes globally. |
| Crowding Risk lower is better · high confidence | 78/100 | Widely covered, and less bifurcated than before: Intel's sharp 2026 share re-rating has narrowed the earlier TSMC-versus-Intel valuation and positioning split, pulling this cluster closer to a uniformly crowded trade ra… |
| Reflexivity Risk lower is better · high confidence | 61/100 | Policy-announcement headlines move these stocks meaningfully, layered on top of genuine competitive/earnings divergence. |
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